Evaluation of circulating insulin-like growth factor-1, heart-type fatty acid-binding protein, and endotrophin levels as prognostic markers of COVID-19 infection severity.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic challenge spreading enormously within a few months. COVID-19 is characterized by the over-activation of the immune system causing cytokine storm. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) pathway can regulate the immune response via interaction with various implicated cytokines. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) has been shown to promote inflammation. Given the fact that coronavirus infections induce cytokines secretion leading to inflammatory lung injury, it has been suggested that H-FABP levels are affected by COVID-19 severity. Moreover, endotrophin (ETP), the cleavage product of collagen VI, may be an indicator of an overactive repair process and fibrosis, considering that viral infection may predispose or exacerbate existing respiratory conditions, including pulmonary fibrosis. This study aims to assess the prognostic capacity of circulating IGF-1, HFABP, and ETP, levels for COVID-19 severity progression in Egyptian patients. METHODS: The study cohort included 107 viral RNA-positive patients and an equivalent number of control individuals with no clinical signs of infection. Clinical assessments included profiling of CBC; serum iron; liver and kidney functions; inflammatory markers. Circulating levels of IGF-1; H-FABP, and ETP were estimated using the corresponding ELISA kits. RESULTS: No statistical difference in the body mass index was detected between the healthy and control groups, while the mean age of infected patients was significantly higher (P = 0.0162) than the control. Patients generally showed elevated levels of inflammatory markers including CRP and ESR concomitant with elevated serum ferritin; D dimer and procalcitonin levels, besides the COVID-19 characteristic lymphopenia and hypoxemia were also frequent. Logistic regression analysis revealed that oxygen saturation; serum IGF-1, and H-FABP can significantly predict the infection progression (P < 0.001 each). Both serum IGF-1 and H-FABP as well as O2 saturation showed remarkable prognostic potentials in terms of large AUC values, high sensitivity/specificity values, and wide confidence interval. The calculated threshold for severity prognosis was 25.5 ng/mL; 19.5 ng/mL, 94.5, % and for IGF-1, H-FABP, and O2 saturation; respectively. The calculated thresholds of serum IGF-1; H-FABP, and O2 saturation showed positive and negative value ranges of 79-91% and 72-97%; respectively, with 66-95%, 83-94% sensitivity, and specificity; respectively. CONCLUSION: The calculated cut-off values of serum IGF-1 and H-FABP represent a promising non-invasive prognostic tool that would facilitate the risk stratification in COVID-19 patients, and control the morbidity/mortality associated with progressive infection.

Predictors of severity and development of critical illness of Egyptian COVID-19 patients: A multicenter study.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted the present multicenter, retrospective study to assess the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics associated with critical illness among patients with COVID-19 from Egypt. METHODS: The present study was a multicenter, retrospective study that retrieved the data of all Egyptian cases with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to hospitals affiliated to the General Organization for Teaching Hospitals and Institutes (GOTHI) through the period from March to July 2020. The diagnosis of COVID-19 was based on a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) laboratory test. RESULTS: This retrospective study included 2724 COVID-19 patients, of whom 423 (15.52%) were critically ill. Approximately 45.86% of the critical group aged above 60 years, compared to 39.59% in the non-critical group (p = 0.016). Multivariate analysis showed that many factors were predictors of critically illness, including age >60 years (OR = 1.30, 95% CI [1.05, 1.61], p = 0.014), low oxygen saturation (OR = 0.93, 95% CI [0.91, 0.95], p<0.001), low Glasgow coma scale (OR = 0.75, 95% CI [0.67, 0.84], p<0.001), diabetes (OR = 1.62, 95% CI [1.26, 2.08], p<0.001), cancer (OR = 2.47, 95% CI [1.41, 4.35], p = 0.002), and serum ferritin (OR = 1.004, 95% CI [1.0003, 1.008], p = 0.031). CONCLUSION: In the present report, we demonstrated that many factors are associated with COVID-19 critical illness, including older age groups, fatigue, elevated temperature, increased pulse, lower oxygen saturation, the preexistence of diabetes, malignancies, cardiovascular disease, renal diseases, and pulmonary disease. Moreover, elevated serum levels of ALT, AST, and ferritin are associated with worse outcomes. Further studies are required to identify independent predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19.